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Monday, November 7, 2011
Well, Diwali is over and in Muhurat trading on Diwali day (26 Oct 2011), NIFTY opened Higher with GAP up but closed around the low of the day. To me, that is sign of weakness, at least for Indian markets. It might be well worth for you to have a look at the history of NIFTY on Muhurat trading day!
Yes, NIFTY Future has been strong thereafter and gave us a new HIGH on 28th Oct at 5402, but quickly filled the GAP created on 5th Aug (downside) and 28th Oct (upside). Trend has turned up on 1 day, 2 day and 3 day Swing charts, but we still need to wait for a higher bottom on weekly charts for the trend to turn up. All these show some strength, and give indication that we might on the verge of a break out on the upside. I have my own doubts! WHERE ARE THE VOLUMES??? It might be a false break out.
While it is very difficult to predict where NIFTY is headed, I am watching out for couple of important dates this month. And most important one, 8th November 2011 (or may be 9th Nov). One of these 2 dates, should hopefully clear the confusion.
I have worked out this date using GANN's techniques. According to GANN, the markets (especially indices) move in certain pattern and there are vibrations observed around certain dates every year. He gives 10 dates a year (based on astronomical movement of planets) and I have proved it to my satisfaction that these dates DO WORK, with a deviation of +/- 2 days. There is reason for these deviations as well which I will not go into details here.
If we look at the dates of various HIGH and LOW made in last 12 months, the date of 8th November is:
1. One of the 10 seasonal date changes that GANN mentioned in his work.
2. 360 degrees away from 5 Nov 2010 High (actual date is 6th Nov but it's Sunday and 7th is a holiday)
3. 240 degrees away from 4 Mar 2011 High (actual date is 6th Nov but it's Sunday and 7th is a holiday)
4. 196 and 294 calendar days away from 25th April and 17th Jan 2011 respectively. These are 2 and 3 multiples of 98 calendar days. If you look at the number of days run between some Tops and Bottoms, it is 98 days. Do check 5Nov2010 to 11Feb2011 and 6Mar2009 to 12Jun2009, as quick references. There are many more such examples. (actual date is 7th Nov but it's a holiday)
5. 45 degrees from 21st Sep HIGH
6. 60 degrees from 8th Sep HIGH,
7. 90 degrees from 9th Aug LOW,
8. 120 degrees from 8th July HIGH and
9. 180 degrees (one half of a cycle or circle) from 5 May 2011 LOW.
10. 49 calendar days (one half of 98 day cycle) from 21st Sep HIGH
I have many more important dates in NIFTY history which gives us the 8th Nov 2011 as a significant date to watch for a change in trend.
One may ask what the change will be, I believe since the trend is up since 4th October, it is obvious which way I expect it to go. But let's wait for a confirmation, before going short!!
The other 2 important dates to watch for in November are 14/15 and 25.
Happy trading!
Yes, NIFTY Future has been strong thereafter and gave us a new HIGH on 28th Oct at 5402, but quickly filled the GAP created on 5th Aug (downside) and 28th Oct (upside). Trend has turned up on 1 day, 2 day and 3 day Swing charts, but we still need to wait for a higher bottom on weekly charts for the trend to turn up. All these show some strength, and give indication that we might on the verge of a break out on the upside. I have my own doubts! WHERE ARE THE VOLUMES??? It might be a false break out.
While it is very difficult to predict where NIFTY is headed, I am watching out for couple of important dates this month. And most important one, 8th November 2011 (or may be 9th Nov). One of these 2 dates, should hopefully clear the confusion.
I have worked out this date using GANN's techniques. According to GANN, the markets (especially indices) move in certain pattern and there are vibrations observed around certain dates every year. He gives 10 dates a year (based on astronomical movement of planets) and I have proved it to my satisfaction that these dates DO WORK, with a deviation of +/- 2 days. There is reason for these deviations as well which I will not go into details here.
If we look at the dates of various HIGH and LOW made in last 12 months, the date of 8th November is:
1. One of the 10 seasonal date changes that GANN mentioned in his work.
2. 360 degrees away from 5 Nov 2010 High (actual date is 6th Nov but it's Sunday and 7th is a holiday)
3. 240 degrees away from 4 Mar 2011 High (actual date is 6th Nov but it's Sunday and 7th is a holiday)
4. 196 and 294 calendar days away from 25th April and 17th Jan 2011 respectively. These are 2 and 3 multiples of 98 calendar days. If you look at the number of days run between some Tops and Bottoms, it is 98 days. Do check 5Nov2010 to 11Feb2011 and 6Mar2009 to 12Jun2009, as quick references. There are many more such examples. (actual date is 7th Nov but it's a holiday)
5. 45 degrees from 21st Sep HIGH
6. 60 degrees from 8th Sep HIGH,
7. 90 degrees from 9th Aug LOW,
8. 120 degrees from 8th July HIGH and
9. 180 degrees (one half of a cycle or circle) from 5 May 2011 LOW.
10. 49 calendar days (one half of 98 day cycle) from 21st Sep HIGH
I have many more important dates in NIFTY history which gives us the 8th Nov 2011 as a significant date to watch for a change in trend.
One may ask what the change will be, I believe since the trend is up since 4th October, it is obvious which way I expect it to go. But let's wait for a confirmation, before going short!!
The other 2 important dates to watch for in November are 14/15 and 25.
Happy trading!
Monday, October 31, 2011
Monday, October 10, 2011
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
Starting with an excerpt from my post of 19th Aug,
"My view is (and I may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in."
Nifty having achieved both targets on downside and upside, should now resume it's downward journey.
I have some interesting Time analysis for those who are interested in looking the time aspect of the market:
- First run down of NIFTY from 5 Nov 2010 (last Diwali) to 11 Feb 2011 was 98 days
- Second run down of NIFTY from 8th July 2011 to 26 Aug 2011 was 49 days, which is exactly 50% of the time range mentioned above
- Both above ranges were almost equal i.e. 1035 and 1042. So 100% in price and 50% in time.
- NIFTY made a HIGH in 5174 on 8th Sep 2011, seemingly completing its retracement journey of 14 days.
According to me, we should see NIFTY around 4550 by 26th October 2011 i.e. the day of Diwali. It is a very important pressure date and we might see the LOW of 2011 made on Diwali. Whether this Diwali it is the LOW of the year or not, will be decided by the Muharat trading. If NIFTY closes above the Open price in the Muhurat trading, it would be the LOW of the year and we would see a strong year ahead for NIFTY. The reasons that I say the date of 26th October is important:
1. It is exactly one year in terms of Hindu calendar i.e. from one diwali to another
2. It is an anniversary date of the last bear market Low made on 27th Oct 2008
3. If you add 49 days (time taken to complete section) to 8th Sep (once it is confirmed as TOP), it gives you a date of 27th Oct.
4. We had the 2nd Section completed on 26th Aug. Earth would have moved 60 degrees by 26th Oct.
5. We had some intermediary Lows and HIGHs made on 29th Oct 2010 (360 degrees), 26th Nov 2010 (330 degrees), 25 Feb 2011 (240 degrees), 25 May 2011 (150 degrees).
[exact Multiples of 30 degrees are important in GANN's technical analysis)
Let's watch out for the Muhurat trading on Diwali day......
I strongly recommend investors to stay away from this market for another 2 months or so, or at least till Diwali. You won't repent your decision !!!!
"My view is (and I may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in."
Nifty having achieved both targets on downside and upside, should now resume it's downward journey.
I have some interesting Time analysis for those who are interested in looking the time aspect of the market:
- First run down of NIFTY from 5 Nov 2010 (last Diwali) to 11 Feb 2011 was 98 days
- Second run down of NIFTY from 8th July 2011 to 26 Aug 2011 was 49 days, which is exactly 50% of the time range mentioned above
- Both above ranges were almost equal i.e. 1035 and 1042. So 100% in price and 50% in time.
- NIFTY made a HIGH in 5174 on 8th Sep 2011, seemingly completing its retracement journey of 14 days.
According to me, we should see NIFTY around 4550 by 26th October 2011 i.e. the day of Diwali. It is a very important pressure date and we might see the LOW of 2011 made on Diwali. Whether this Diwali it is the LOW of the year or not, will be decided by the Muharat trading. If NIFTY closes above the Open price in the Muhurat trading, it would be the LOW of the year and we would see a strong year ahead for NIFTY. The reasons that I say the date of 26th October is important:
1. It is exactly one year in terms of Hindu calendar i.e. from one diwali to another
2. It is an anniversary date of the last bear market Low made on 27th Oct 2008
3. If you add 49 days (time taken to complete section) to 8th Sep (once it is confirmed as TOP), it gives you a date of 27th Oct.
4. We had the 2nd Section completed on 26th Aug. Earth would have moved 60 degrees by 26th Oct.
5. We had some intermediary Lows and HIGHs made on 29th Oct 2010 (360 degrees), 26th Nov 2010 (330 degrees), 25 Feb 2011 (240 degrees), 25 May 2011 (150 degrees).
[exact Multiples of 30 degrees are important in GANN's technical analysis)
Let's watch out for the Muhurat trading on Diwali day......
I strongly recommend investors to stay away from this market for another 2 months or so, or at least till Diwali. You won't repent your decision !!!!
Monday, September 5, 2011
...is wondering if good Customer service really exists? If there is a problem, you have go through the same bureaucracy, in the name of process and workflow. and worst that the customer care executive(s), don't care at all for you. another bad experience with Letsbuy.com. If I have advised any of the friends earlier to buy through them, please don't take my advice.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Sunday, August 21, 2011
As mentioned in my previous post, immediately after closing of the market on 19th August 2011, NIFTY is now in a very weak position and is gunning for it’s target of 4734 level. I am of a strong opinion that ... see rest of the article at:
http://ping.fm/WV6Us
http://ping.fm/WV6Us
Friday, August 19, 2011
NIFTY Outlook
This week has been very kind to me, and all traders who traded short on NIFTY. We had a good run of about 300 points on NIFTY.
NIFTY Futures held 4800 level to touch the weekly LOW at 4801, and bounced back sharply by 50 points to close the week around 4850. It is important to note that the weekly close is below the 75% level of last range, which is very critical.
My view is that the downside is not yet over. I did expect NIFTY to achieve our target of 4734 this week itself, but it did not. I am confident that we will see our target of 4734 achieved within next 1-2 trading sessions.
What next?
GANN said that the markets generally move in 3 sections. When you look at the NIFTY movement since Nov 2010, you will notice that:
- It ran down from Nov 5, 2010 at 6349 to Feb 11, 2011 at 5175, thus making a range of 1174 points in 98 days. (1st Section)
- It ran up from 5175 to 6000, making a high on Apr 5, 2011 , thus a range of 825 points in 91 days. Both Price and Time ranges were lower than the range made on downside.
- It ran down making a double bottom at 5182 on 20th June. Some can call it the end of section 2, but I have a different view. When it ran up from 5182, it was unable to go past 50% level off the 1st Section range. There was a strong resistance also in form of a GANN angle (trendline drawn) from Nov 5, 2010 TOP.
- On 8th July 2011, it made a HIGH at 5760, which was exactly 50% of the 1st Section range. It started its 2nd Section, which I expect to get completed around 4734. We don't yet know if the second section is over, though I think so.
My view is (and my may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in.
This week has been very kind to me, and all traders who traded short on NIFTY. We had a good run of about 300 points on NIFTY.
NIFTY Futures held 4800 level to touch the weekly LOW at 4801, and bounced back sharply by 50 points to close the week around 4850. It is important to note that the weekly close is below the 75% level of last range, which is very critical.
My view is that the downside is not yet over. I did expect NIFTY to achieve our target of 4734 this week itself, but it did not. I am confident that we will see our target of 4734 achieved within next 1-2 trading sessions.
What next?
GANN said that the markets generally move in 3 sections. When you look at the NIFTY movement since Nov 2010, you will notice that:
- It ran down from Nov 5, 2010 at 6349 to Feb 11, 2011 at 5175, thus making a range of 1174 points in 98 days. (1st Section)
- It ran up from 5175 to 6000, making a high on Apr 5, 2011 , thus a range of 825 points in 91 days. Both Price and Time ranges were lower than the range made on downside.
- It ran down making a double bottom at 5182 on 20th June. Some can call it the end of section 2, but I have a different view. When it ran up from 5182, it was unable to go past 50% level off the 1st Section range. There was a strong resistance also in form of a GANN angle (trendline drawn) from Nov 5, 2010 TOP.
- On 8th July 2011, it made a HIGH at 5760, which was exactly 50% of the 1st Section range. It started its 2nd Section, which I expect to get completed around 4734. We don't yet know if the second section is over, though I think so.
My view is (and my may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Continuing with my previous posts on NIFTY, my view is getting stronger that the Bears have taken over. While NIFTY has managed to hold to the 4980 support over last few days, it has not managed to close above the strong support around 5200 level since 6th August 2011.
It is important to note that this 5200 is a triple bottom pattern with LOWs made around this level on 30 June 2010, 11 Feb 2011 and 20 June 2011. This support seems to have been broken for NIFTY. Another interesting and very critical indicator is that there was a GAP down opening on 5th August when NIFTY broke this support, and that GAP has not yet been filled, despite NIFTY trying to go past this Resistance. The STRONG support of 5200 has now become a very STRONG resistance. Will NIFTY be able to break out above this level, time only will tell.
I am currently putting my money on the down side and am short in this market.
Those who want to make some money trading short in NIFTY Futures, may enter a SHORT trade between 5120 to 5100 for Target of 4734, with STOP LOSS at 5225. That's around 3.8 : 1 of Reward Risk ratio. Please note that NIFTY will find some support around 4980 as it is 50% of the last downside range that we are working on as well a support on downside on a GANN angle from the Nov 5 TOP. (Please see the charts on my one of previous post http://sumitkgupta.com/2011/08/04/nifty-bulls-or-bear/) . So, once it crosses 4980 on the downside, I mean NIFTY trades around 4950/4960, move your STOP LOSS to 4981, OR if you want to give some room and keep riding the wave, you may want to move your STOP LOSS to 5115 (entry price + brokerage).
I haven't yet worked out the time frames or date as to when this target is likely to be achieved, but since it took only 5 trading days to make the last range, I believe, we should have a target date of 19th Aug or 26th Aug. May be, you would need to roll over your position to next month futures.
I have a bearish view and I maintain that "we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months"
DON'T PANIC, BE WISE, BE CAUTIOUS.
It is important to note that this 5200 is a triple bottom pattern with LOWs made around this level on 30 June 2010, 11 Feb 2011 and 20 June 2011. This support seems to have been broken for NIFTY. Another interesting and very critical indicator is that there was a GAP down opening on 5th August when NIFTY broke this support, and that GAP has not yet been filled, despite NIFTY trying to go past this Resistance. The STRONG support of 5200 has now become a very STRONG resistance. Will NIFTY be able to break out above this level, time only will tell.
I am currently putting my money on the down side and am short in this market.
Those who want to make some money trading short in NIFTY Futures, may enter a SHORT trade between 5120 to 5100 for Target of 4734, with STOP LOSS at 5225. That's around 3.8 : 1 of Reward Risk ratio. Please note that NIFTY will find some support around 4980 as it is 50% of the last downside range that we are working on as well a support on downside on a GANN angle from the Nov 5 TOP. (Please see the charts on my one of previous post http://sumitkgupta.com/2011/08/04/nifty-bulls-or-bear/) . So, once it crosses 4980 on the downside, I mean NIFTY trades around 4950/4960, move your STOP LOSS to 4981, OR if you want to give some room and keep riding the wave, you may want to move your STOP LOSS to 5115 (entry price + brokerage).
I haven't yet worked out the time frames or date as to when this target is likely to be achieved, but since it took only 5 trading days to make the last range, I believe, we should have a target date of 19th Aug or 26th Aug. May be, you would need to roll over your position to next month futures.
I have a bearish view and I maintain that "we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months"
DON'T PANIC, BE WISE, BE CAUTIOUS.
Monday, August 8, 2011
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