NIFTY - Analysis

In current market scenario, every trader, small or big, starter or experienced, expert or novice, is wondering where the market is headed. I follow Indian markets closely, and trade mostly on index, particularly NIFTY. I have done analysis on where NIFTY is expected to move. I will also share some technical part, which may not be of interest to you, and may go over your head as well. But, necessary to let you know that I have done some work :) and am not talking in air. But first the brief:

NIFTY is expected to consolidate for next 3-4 sessions, around 3150 levels and then start its downward journey to around 2000 level and bottom out. This level should be achieved by 27th April. From here on, I expect NIFTY to move upwards for its next BULL run which should last around 7 years. Watch out for 27th April.

Now my basis of this forecast (Technical analysis is based on the belief 'HISTROY REPEATS':

1. NIFTY Futures haven't CLOSED above 3160 since 22nd October 2008. It touched 3148 on 6th January 2009, made a Double Top and now it is reaching the same level (around 3140) which was on 27th March 2009. This means it is making a TRIPLE TOP here which is very strong resistance.

2. Time difference between 22 Oct-6 Jan is 76 days and between 7 Jan - 27 Mar is 79 days. Almost 11 weeks in both cases.

3. NIFTY made its last significant low on 27th Oct 2008. 180 degrees i.e. half/50% of the circle gets completed on 26th April. Since 26th is Sunday, I am banking on 27th April.

4. NIFTY has tested 2500 level 3 times in last 5 months but has been able to hold. If it tests it for the 4th time, it is very likely to break through this level.

Happy trading.

Eagerly waiting for 27th April.