Monday, November 7, 2011

Well, Diwali is over and in Muhurat trading on Diwali day (26 Oct 2011), NIFTY opened Higher with GAP up but closed around the low of the day. To me, that is sign of weakness, at least for Indian markets. It might be well worth for you to have a look at the history of NIFTY on Muhurat trading day!

Yes, NIFTY Future has been strong thereafter and gave us a new HIGH on 28th Oct at 5402, but quickly filled the GAP created on 5th Aug (downside) and 28th Oct (upside). Trend has turned up on 1 day, 2 day and 3 day Swing charts, but we still need to wait for a higher bottom on weekly charts for the trend to turn up. All these show some strength, and give indication that we might on the verge of a break out on the upside. I have my own doubts! WHERE ARE THE VOLUMES??? It might be a false break out.

While it is very difficult to predict where NIFTY is headed, I am watching out for couple of important dates this month. And most important one, 8th November 2011 (or may be 9th Nov). One of these 2 dates, should hopefully clear the confusion.

I have worked out this date using GANN's techniques. According to GANN, the markets (especially indices) move in certain pattern and there are vibrations observed around certain dates every year. He gives 10 dates a year (based on astronomical movement of planets) and I have proved it to my satisfaction that these dates DO WORK, with a deviation of +/- 2 days. There is reason for these deviations as well which I will not go into details here.

If we look at the dates of various HIGH and LOW made in last 12 months, the date of 8th November is:

1. One of the 10 seasonal date changes that GANN mentioned in his work.

2. 360 degrees away from 5 Nov 2010 High (actual date is 6th Nov but it's Sunday and 7th is a holiday)

3. 240 degrees away from 4 Mar 2011 High (actual date is 6th Nov but it's Sunday and 7th is a holiday)

4. 196 and 294 calendar days away from 25th April and 17th Jan 2011 respectively. These are 2 and 3 multiples of 98 calendar days. If you look at the number of days run between some Tops and Bottoms, it is 98 days. Do check 5Nov2010 to 11Feb2011 and 6Mar2009 to 12Jun2009, as quick references. There are many more such examples. (actual date is 7th Nov but it's a holiday)

5. 45 degrees from 21st Sep HIGH

6. 60 degrees from 8th Sep HIGH,

7. 90 degrees from 9th Aug LOW,

8. 120 degrees from 8th July HIGH and

9. 180 degrees (one half of a cycle or circle) from 5 May 2011 LOW.

10. 49 calendar days (one half of 98 day cycle) from 21st Sep HIGH

I have many more important dates in NIFTY history which gives us the 8th Nov 2011 as a significant date to watch for a change in trend.

One may ask what the change will be, I believe since the trend is up since 4th October, it is obvious which way I expect it to go. But let's wait for a confirmation, before going short!!

The other 2 important dates to watch for in November are 14/15 and 25.

Happy trading!

Monday, October 31, 2011

expecting NIFTY to make a TOP around 5500 on 8 November 2011

Monday, October 10, 2011

SELL NIFTY Oct futures once it trades below 5026, with Target of 4620 (in next 3-4 trading sessions) and STOP LOSS 5056
expecting NIFTY to make a Double Top around 5036 today! Go short once NIFTY trades below today's open with a Stop Loss of 5037. Target 4620 by Friday, 14th October 2011.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

no broadband @ home for last 10 days. Airtel has been pathetic in its response and hasn't done anything despite 3-4 followups everyday. finally requested for disconnection. Any suggestion on which data card and service to choose?

Friday, September 9, 2011

Starting with an excerpt from my post of 19th Aug,

"My view is (and I may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in."

Nifty having achieved both targets on downside and upside, should now resume it's downward journey.

I have some interesting Time analysis for those who are interested in looking the time aspect of the market:

- First run down of NIFTY from 5 Nov 2010 (last Diwali) to 11 Feb 2011 was 98 days

- Second run down of NIFTY from 8th July 2011 to 26 Aug 2011 was 49 days, which is exactly 50% of the time range mentioned above

- Both above ranges were almost equal i.e. 1035 and 1042. So 100% in price and 50% in time.

- NIFTY made a HIGH in 5174 on 8th Sep 2011, seemingly completing its retracement journey of 14 days.

According to me, we should see NIFTY around 4550 by 26th October 2011 i.e. the day of Diwali. It is a very important pressure date and we might see the LOW of 2011 made on Diwali. Whether this Diwali it is the LOW of the year or not, will be decided by the Muharat trading. If NIFTY closes above the Open price in the Muhurat trading, it would be the LOW of the year and we would see a strong year ahead for NIFTY. The reasons that I say the date of 26th October is important:

1. It is exactly one year in terms of Hindu calendar i.e. from one diwali to another

2. It is an anniversary date of the last bear market Low made on 27th Oct 2008

3. If you add 49 days (time taken to complete section) to 8th Sep (once it is confirmed as TOP), it gives you a date of 27th Oct.

4. We had the 2nd Section completed on 26th Aug. Earth would have moved 60 degrees by 26th Oct.

5. We had some intermediary Lows and HIGHs made on 29th Oct 2010 (360 degrees), 26th Nov 2010 (330 degrees), 25 Feb 2011 (240 degrees), 25 May 2011 (150 degrees).

[exact Multiples of 30 degrees are important in GANN's technical analysis)

Let's watch out for the Muhurat trading on Diwali day......

I strongly recommend investors to stay away from this market for another 2 months or so, or at least till Diwali. You won't repent your decision !!!!

Monday, September 5, 2011

...is wondering if good Customer service really exists? If there is a problem, you have go through the same bureaucracy, in the name of process and workflow. and worst that the customer care executive(s), don't care at all for you. another bad experience with Letsbuy.com. If I have advised any of the friends earlier to buy through them, please don't take my advice.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Short Sell NIFTY Sep Futures between 4865 to 4832.

Target : 4551 (profit potential per lot 14,000 to 15,700)

STOP LOSS : 4974 (Risk - 7,000 per lot)

Reward to Risk Ratio - 2:1

Sunday, August 21, 2011

As mentioned in my previous post, immediately after closing of the market on 19th August 2011, NIFTY is now in a very weak position and is gunning for it’s target of 4734 level. I am of a strong opinion that ... see rest of the article at:

http://ping.fm/WV6Us

Friday, August 19, 2011

NIFTY Outlook

This week has been very kind to me, and all traders who traded short on NIFTY. We had a good run of about 300 points on NIFTY.

NIFTY Futures held 4800 level to touch the weekly LOW at 4801, and bounced back sharply by 50 points to close the week around 4850. It is important to note that the weekly close is below the 75% level of last range, which is very critical.

My view is that the downside is not yet over. I did expect NIFTY to achieve our target of 4734 this week itself, but it did not. I am confident that we will see our target of 4734 achieved within next 1-2 trading sessions.

What next?

GANN said that the markets generally move in 3 sections. When you look at the NIFTY movement since Nov 2010, you will notice that:

- It ran down from Nov 5, 2010 at 6349 to Feb 11, 2011 at 5175, thus making a range of 1174 points in 98 days. (1st Section)

- It ran up from 5175 to 6000, making a high on Apr 5, 2011 , thus a range of 825 points in 91 days. Both Price and Time ranges were lower than the range made on downside.

- It ran down making a double bottom at 5182 on 20th June. Some can call it the end of section 2, but I have a different view. When it ran up from 5182, it was unable to go past 50% level off the 1st Section range. There was a strong resistance also in form of a GANN angle (trendline drawn) from Nov 5, 2010 TOP.

- On 8th July 2011, it made a HIGH at 5760, which was exactly 50% of the 1st Section range. It started its 2nd Section, which I expect to get completed around 4734. We don't yet know if the second section is over, though I think so.

My view is (and my may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Continuing with my previous posts on NIFTY, my view is getting stronger that the Bears have taken over. While NIFTY has managed to hold to the 4980 support over last few days, it has not managed to close above the strong support around 5200 level since 6th August 2011.

It is important to note that this 5200 is a triple bottom pattern with LOWs made around this level on 30 June 2010, 11 Feb 2011 and 20 June 2011. This support seems to have been broken for NIFTY. Another interesting and very critical indicator is that there was a GAP down opening on 5th August when NIFTY broke this support, and that GAP has not yet been filled, despite NIFTY trying to go past this Resistance. The STRONG support of 5200 has now become a very STRONG resistance. Will NIFTY be able to break out above this level, time only will tell.

I am currently putting my money on the down side and am short in this market.

Those who want to make some money trading short in NIFTY Futures, may enter a SHORT trade between 5120 to 5100 for Target of 4734, with STOP LOSS at 5225. That's around 3.8 : 1 of Reward Risk ratio. Please note that NIFTY will find some support around 4980 as it is 50% of the last downside range that we are working on as well a support on downside on a GANN angle from the Nov 5 TOP. (Please see the charts on my one of previous post http://sumitkgupta.com/2011/08/04/nifty-bulls-or-bear/) . So, once it crosses 4980 on the downside, I mean NIFTY trades around 4950/4960, move your STOP LOSS to 4981, OR if you want to give some room and keep riding the wave, you may want to move your STOP LOSS to 5115 (entry price + brokerage).

I haven't yet worked out the time frames or date as to when this target is likely to be achieved, but since it took only 5 trading days to make the last range, I believe, we should have a target date of 19th Aug or 26th Aug. May be, you would need to roll over your position to next month futures.

I have a bearish view and I maintain that "we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months"

DON'T PANIC, BE WISE, BE CAUTIOUS.

Monday, August 8, 2011

MakeMyTrip (MMYT, Nasdaq) closed @ 17.12, Expect it to touch 15.15 and 13.40 in coming weeks. 13.4 is strong support and buying level. Watch out for 12 Aug, it's first anniversary date!
MakeMyTrip (MMYT, Nasdaq) closed @ 17.12. Should touch 15.15 and 13.40 in few weeks. 13.4 will be a strong support and buying level
expect gap down opening on NIFTY around 4900 today! 2 consecutive closes below 4950 will confirm the downtrend to 4750, 4200, 3500, 3175 in next 6-8 months.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

NIFTY closed below 5300 though at the day's HIGH on 5th August, 2011. Hence, it gave mixed signals in terms of the direction. Generally, the market would close around the day's LOW else, it could be a trend reversal signal.

However, gap down opening again today, has confirmed the bear phase of NIFTY. Let's see if it is able to hold 4980 level. If it doesn't, (which in my opinion may not be held for more than 2 days), we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months.

It's not time to invest in the market and investors should stay away. Those invested with a horizon of less than 6 months, should exit and enter after or around diwali, after checking signals on Diwali muhurat trading.

Yes, the traders should look out for Short Selling opportunities in the market. The decline is going to be sharp.

As they say, "Bull climbs through stairs, and Bear goes down by lift"

Thursday, August 4, 2011

We had a very interesting day today on 3rd August 2011. After a long time, I got some ‘real’ time to analyse NIFTY.

NIFTY has been moving down since Nov 2010 after making a Double Top at the All Time HIGH of 6349 (previous Top was 6336 on 8th Jan 2008). In my analysis, I use GANN Angles and they work so beautifully.

Look at the first chart below showing a GANN angle from All Time Low of 860.3 on 21 Sep 2001. It has been acting as a support line to NIFTY since Nov 2009.

visit www.sumitkgupta.com for charts and remaining article
be cautious before buying from BagItToday! Do read complaints at http://ping.fm/j2iS1

Monday, June 20, 2011

NIFTY has been trading in a range of 5300 to 5650 for quite some time.

On 20th June, it has breached an important support @ 5300 hundred. It touched a LOW of 5196 today, before closing @ 5258. Another important support is around 5180, however, I am confident that it will get breached too!

Next target for NIFTY is 4969, and I won't be surprised if we see it achieved by 22nd June 2011. Two days to go!

Thereafter, next support levels are 4765 and 4300. Watch out for a 20% run down on NIFTY.

Happy Trading Shorts!

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Buy HPCL Jun Futures around 380 with target of 412 and STOP LOSS 369

SELL BALRAMPUR CHINI Jun futures @ crrnt mkt price. Target 46.15 STOP LOSS 64.50

SELL Biocon futures @ crrnt mkt price. Target 305 STOP LOSS 370
Buy HPCL Jun Futures around 380 with target of 412 and STOP LOSS 369

Monday, June 6, 2011

SELL BALRAMPUR CHINI futures @ crrnt mkt price. Target 46.15

STOP LOSS 64.50SELL Biocon futures @ crrnt mkt price. Target 305 STOP LOSS 370

Thursday, May 26, 2011

NIFTY – June Series
by SUMIT GUPTA on May 26, 2011

Today was the expiry date for the May 2011 derivatives series. This month has been quite eventful. While at the begining of this month, I was a little bullish, it turned out finally to be a bearish month.

Excerpt from my March 28 2011 post:

“While some experts might say that this is sign of strength, I have my own doubts. Volumes are lower than the average 200 day moving average volume. Normally, when a resistance is broken, it is on HIGH VOLUMES showing confidence of people buying. Volumes comes from institutions / FIIs / Professional investors buying. Low volumes indicate involvement of retail investors, which mostly are buying because they ‘hope’ the market to go up.

In my view, NIFTY is likely to open with a gap up on Tuesday/Wednesday, 29th/30th March, touch 5800 making a Double TOP with 25th Jan HIGH during the day and then close near the LOW of the day, and perhaps below the close of previous day, with HIGH volumes. If that happens, then it is expected to retrace back to Target 1 – 5200 and Target 2- 4600 by 6th May 2011.”

While I must admit that I was wrong in calculating the date i.e. by 6th May, NIFTY has already retraced to 5328 today’s (26th May) LOW. If it wasn’t an expiry date and short covering didn’t happen, we would have seen market closing either flat or negative. It is exactly 60 days from my last post that we are approaching another pressure date. If you see 28 May 2010 LOW, we are approaching the anniversary in next 1 or 2 sessions. Would we see a black Friday or Monday, time will tell. My guess is, it will be Monday that we see a sharp decline. So, target 1 will be achieved, soon.

Time to go short, target is 5125-5150. NIFTY needs to touch this level, atleast, to complete it’s 3rd Section. I won’t be surprised, if NIFTY sheds 150+ points in next 2 sessions. Some Technical and professional analysts might tell you that the market is oversold. But I am sure, it’s not time to go LONG and definitely, not for investors. They should wait for a week or 2 and I am sure, they would not repent it.

Short Trade NIFTY. 300 points can give you Rs. 15000 per lot

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

BUY NIFTY March Futures above 5510.
Target - 5825
STOP LOSS - 5400

Sunday, February 6, 2011

NIFTY touched a low around 5370 on 4th Feb. I expect it to bottom out @ 5350 on Monday, 7th Feb 2011 to resume its upward journey to cross 7000+ by July 2011

Friday, January 28, 2011

Mera Bharat Mahan - coming back from OZ

Time has come finally, when me and Pratibha would bid good bye to Adelaide and …… the long chased OZ dream…….. on 7th of December 2009, on a Monday morning when most people go to start their week. They go where they don’t want to go 

It might sound weird, strange, surprising, shocking, immature, impatient ….. and blah blah…. like a decision in haste or whatever….. But we believe it’s the right decision in our circumstances. We thought long and hard about it, and then finally decided that It’s better to go to ‘Incredible India’. Yahan, wahan, pura Jahan, par? Mera Bharat Mahan.

Yes, the roads in OZ are good, bcos there are not enough people to drive on the roads,
Yes, there is no pollution in air, bcos there are not enough people to pollute the environment,
Yes, the Govt employees are not ‘babus’, bcos there are not enough people to keep them busy,
Yes, the kids can enjoy playing in clean parks, bcos there are not enough kids to make the park a mess,
Yes, the beach is clean and tidy, bcos there are not enough people to throw enough rubbish around,
Yes, there is no corruption bcos there are not enough people to see the hard side of life,

Par? Phir bhi ‘Mera Bharat Mahan. Kyun???

Road kharab hai, lekin raat ko there are enough cars on the road to race with you,
Pollution bahut hai, par there are enough people to care about your health,
Govt employees kaam nahin karte, but there are enough people to help you with ‘jugaad’,
Parks clean nahin hai, but there are enough kids to keep the park lively and chirpy and noisy,
Beach bahut gandi hoti hai, but there are enough people to keep you away from them,
Corruption hai, but there enough reasons to like this corruption,

Diwali par acchcha lagta hai, bcos there are enough people to make it a festival,
Har occasion par, there are enough people to wish you and celebrate with you,
When you are sick, there are enough people to ‘pretend’ they care for you,
When you face a challenge, there is enough free advice available.

It was a difficult decision for me and Pratibha to decide. In fact, I believe every decision is tough when it relates to your life and that one decision could change your life forever. Today I believe, it was a great decision for us to come to OZ because it has made us realize the value of the things what we left behind. What used to be irritating yesterday, is missed a lot today.

Whether it be an uninvited friend or relative, who just barge in when they like (whether you like it or not ). Whether it be dhakka mukki in the temples, trains, stations, whether it be the chil po of the cars, whether it be waiting for a chair/table in Haldiram’s, whether it be waiting in queue at BigBazaar? Yaa phir kisi kee shaadi mein na jaane ke bahane dhoondna? Yaa phir bin maangi free ki ‘phaltu’ advice dene wale log? Aur ya phir, IPL mein betting karna? Yaa phir thodi chad jaane ke baad, colleagues ya dosto ka kehna “tu to mera bhai hai……….. tere liye jaan bhi haajir hai”?

And we are already preparing ourselves for the ultimate when we land up in India:

“humne to pehle hee kaha tha ki …….….”

“apna desh best hai kyunki …………”

“are Australia kee bajaye _______ jaate………”

“Tumhe pata hai, hum bhi chahe to jab marji Australia ja sakte the, magar ……….”

“are, aap log to badi jaldi himmat har gaye ……….”

“acchcha hai vapas aa gaye, kya rakha hai vahan par …………….”

…………………………. baate, ……….. aur baate………… aur gossip…………..