Short Sell NIFTY Sep Futures between 4865 to 4832.
Target : 4551 (profit potential per lot 14,000 to 15,700)
STOP LOSS : 4974 (Risk - 7,000 per lot)
Reward to Risk Ratio - 2:1
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Sunday, August 21, 2011
As mentioned in my previous post, immediately after closing of the market on 19th August 2011, NIFTY is now in a very weak position and is gunning for it’s target of 4734 level. I am of a strong opinion that ... see rest of the article at:
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Friday, August 19, 2011
NIFTY Outlook
This week has been very kind to me, and all traders who traded short on NIFTY. We had a good run of about 300 points on NIFTY.
NIFTY Futures held 4800 level to touch the weekly LOW at 4801, and bounced back sharply by 50 points to close the week around 4850. It is important to note that the weekly close is below the 75% level of last range, which is very critical.
My view is that the downside is not yet over. I did expect NIFTY to achieve our target of 4734 this week itself, but it did not. I am confident that we will see our target of 4734 achieved within next 1-2 trading sessions.
What next?
GANN said that the markets generally move in 3 sections. When you look at the NIFTY movement since Nov 2010, you will notice that:
- It ran down from Nov 5, 2010 at 6349 to Feb 11, 2011 at 5175, thus making a range of 1174 points in 98 days. (1st Section)
- It ran up from 5175 to 6000, making a high on Apr 5, 2011 , thus a range of 825 points in 91 days. Both Price and Time ranges were lower than the range made on downside.
- It ran down making a double bottom at 5182 on 20th June. Some can call it the end of section 2, but I have a different view. When it ran up from 5182, it was unable to go past 50% level off the 1st Section range. There was a strong resistance also in form of a GANN angle (trendline drawn) from Nov 5, 2010 TOP.
- On 8th July 2011, it made a HIGH at 5760, which was exactly 50% of the 1st Section range. It started its 2nd Section, which I expect to get completed around 4734. We don't yet know if the second section is over, though I think so.
My view is (and my may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in.
This week has been very kind to me, and all traders who traded short on NIFTY. We had a good run of about 300 points on NIFTY.
NIFTY Futures held 4800 level to touch the weekly LOW at 4801, and bounced back sharply by 50 points to close the week around 4850. It is important to note that the weekly close is below the 75% level of last range, which is very critical.
My view is that the downside is not yet over. I did expect NIFTY to achieve our target of 4734 this week itself, but it did not. I am confident that we will see our target of 4734 achieved within next 1-2 trading sessions.
What next?
GANN said that the markets generally move in 3 sections. When you look at the NIFTY movement since Nov 2010, you will notice that:
- It ran down from Nov 5, 2010 at 6349 to Feb 11, 2011 at 5175, thus making a range of 1174 points in 98 days. (1st Section)
- It ran up from 5175 to 6000, making a high on Apr 5, 2011 , thus a range of 825 points in 91 days. Both Price and Time ranges were lower than the range made on downside.
- It ran down making a double bottom at 5182 on 20th June. Some can call it the end of section 2, but I have a different view. When it ran up from 5182, it was unable to go past 50% level off the 1st Section range. There was a strong resistance also in form of a GANN angle (trendline drawn) from Nov 5, 2010 TOP.
- On 8th July 2011, it made a HIGH at 5760, which was exactly 50% of the 1st Section range. It started its 2nd Section, which I expect to get completed around 4734. We don't yet know if the second section is over, though I think so.
My view is (and my may be wrong), after touching 4734 NIFTY is expected to run up to around 5200 level, which is a major resistance now, especially in view that it was a double bottom as well as there was a GAP which has not been filled. Thereafter, NIFTY would run down around 1000 points, down to 4200 level, and this journey shall be completed in about 6 months. And this shall be the 3rd section of the bear market that we are in.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Continuing with my previous posts on NIFTY, my view is getting stronger that the Bears have taken over. While NIFTY has managed to hold to the 4980 support over last few days, it has not managed to close above the strong support around 5200 level since 6th August 2011.
It is important to note that this 5200 is a triple bottom pattern with LOWs made around this level on 30 June 2010, 11 Feb 2011 and 20 June 2011. This support seems to have been broken for NIFTY. Another interesting and very critical indicator is that there was a GAP down opening on 5th August when NIFTY broke this support, and that GAP has not yet been filled, despite NIFTY trying to go past this Resistance. The STRONG support of 5200 has now become a very STRONG resistance. Will NIFTY be able to break out above this level, time only will tell.
I am currently putting my money on the down side and am short in this market.
Those who want to make some money trading short in NIFTY Futures, may enter a SHORT trade between 5120 to 5100 for Target of 4734, with STOP LOSS at 5225. That's around 3.8 : 1 of Reward Risk ratio. Please note that NIFTY will find some support around 4980 as it is 50% of the last downside range that we are working on as well a support on downside on a GANN angle from the Nov 5 TOP. (Please see the charts on my one of previous post http://sumitkgupta.com/2011/08/04/nifty-bulls-or-bear/) . So, once it crosses 4980 on the downside, I mean NIFTY trades around 4950/4960, move your STOP LOSS to 4981, OR if you want to give some room and keep riding the wave, you may want to move your STOP LOSS to 5115 (entry price + brokerage).
I haven't yet worked out the time frames or date as to when this target is likely to be achieved, but since it took only 5 trading days to make the last range, I believe, we should have a target date of 19th Aug or 26th Aug. May be, you would need to roll over your position to next month futures.
I have a bearish view and I maintain that "we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months"
DON'T PANIC, BE WISE, BE CAUTIOUS.
It is important to note that this 5200 is a triple bottom pattern with LOWs made around this level on 30 June 2010, 11 Feb 2011 and 20 June 2011. This support seems to have been broken for NIFTY. Another interesting and very critical indicator is that there was a GAP down opening on 5th August when NIFTY broke this support, and that GAP has not yet been filled, despite NIFTY trying to go past this Resistance. The STRONG support of 5200 has now become a very STRONG resistance. Will NIFTY be able to break out above this level, time only will tell.
I am currently putting my money on the down side and am short in this market.
Those who want to make some money trading short in NIFTY Futures, may enter a SHORT trade between 5120 to 5100 for Target of 4734, with STOP LOSS at 5225. That's around 3.8 : 1 of Reward Risk ratio. Please note that NIFTY will find some support around 4980 as it is 50% of the last downside range that we are working on as well a support on downside on a GANN angle from the Nov 5 TOP. (Please see the charts on my one of previous post http://sumitkgupta.com/2011/08/04/nifty-bulls-or-bear/) . So, once it crosses 4980 on the downside, I mean NIFTY trades around 4950/4960, move your STOP LOSS to 4981, OR if you want to give some room and keep riding the wave, you may want to move your STOP LOSS to 5115 (entry price + brokerage).
I haven't yet worked out the time frames or date as to when this target is likely to be achieved, but since it took only 5 trading days to make the last range, I believe, we should have a target date of 19th Aug or 26th Aug. May be, you would need to roll over your position to next month futures.
I have a bearish view and I maintain that "we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months"
DON'T PANIC, BE WISE, BE CAUTIOUS.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Sunday, August 7, 2011
NIFTY closed below 5300 though at the day's HIGH on 5th August, 2011. Hence, it gave mixed signals in terms of the direction. Generally, the market would close around the day's LOW else, it could be a trend reversal signal.
However, gap down opening again today, has confirmed the bear phase of NIFTY. Let's see if it is able to hold 4980 level. If it doesn't, (which in my opinion may not be held for more than 2 days), we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months.
It's not time to invest in the market and investors should stay away. Those invested with a horizon of less than 6 months, should exit and enter after or around diwali, after checking signals on Diwali muhurat trading.
Yes, the traders should look out for Short Selling opportunities in the market. The decline is going to be sharp.
As they say, "Bull climbs through stairs, and Bear goes down by lift"
However, gap down opening again today, has confirmed the bear phase of NIFTY. Let's see if it is able to hold 4980 level. If it doesn't, (which in my opinion may not be held for more than 2 days), we are likely to see a free fall to 4700, 4200 and may be 3175 in next 6-8 months.
It's not time to invest in the market and investors should stay away. Those invested with a horizon of less than 6 months, should exit and enter after or around diwali, after checking signals on Diwali muhurat trading.
Yes, the traders should look out for Short Selling opportunities in the market. The decline is going to be sharp.
As they say, "Bull climbs through stairs, and Bear goes down by lift"
Thursday, August 4, 2011
We had a very interesting day today on 3rd August 2011. After a long time, I got some ‘real’ time to analyse NIFTY.
NIFTY has been moving down since Nov 2010 after making a Double Top at the All Time HIGH of 6349 (previous Top was 6336 on 8th Jan 2008). In my analysis, I use GANN Angles and they work so beautifully.
Look at the first chart below showing a GANN angle from All Time Low of 860.3 on 21 Sep 2001. It has been acting as a support line to NIFTY since Nov 2009.
visit www.sumitkgupta.com for charts and remaining article
NIFTY has been moving down since Nov 2010 after making a Double Top at the All Time HIGH of 6349 (previous Top was 6336 on 8th Jan 2008). In my analysis, I use GANN Angles and they work so beautifully.
Look at the first chart below showing a GANN angle from All Time Low of 860.3 on 21 Sep 2001. It has been acting as a support line to NIFTY since Nov 2009.
visit www.sumitkgupta.com for charts and remaining article
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